Helene May Bring Catastrophic Surge Not Seen Since Ike in Texas

Helene could go down in history as one of the worst storms to hit Florida. As of early Thursday afternoon, the Category 2 hurricane has top winds of 110 mph, but forecasters believe it will strengthen significantly before landfall Thursday evening.

The official outlook from the National Hurricane Center shows Helene to have sustained winds of up to 120 mph (Category 3) at landfall. However, a few computer models forecast a possible Category 4 hurricane (130-156 mph) as it strikes the Big Bend of Florida, south of Tallahassee.

The National Hurricane Center notes how large the storm has become in their latest discussion.

"...comparing the system with previous hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico over the past couple of decades, Helene is at the upper bound in terms of size..."

Catastrophic Storm Surge

The word, catastrophic, is being tossed around with regularity by hurricane forecasters. Helene's 120 mph winds and massive rainfall totals will bring a lot of destruction and long-term power outages.

However, as with any tropical system, it's the storm surge that is usually responsible for the most damage and loss of life. A large area of the Florida coastline could see a storm surge of 20 feet. That hasn't happened since 2008 when Hurricane Ike blasted Galveston and Crystal Beach.

Hurricane Ike Storm Surge

In 2008, the damage caused by Hurricane Rita in 2005 was still top of the mind for residents of east and southeast Texas. Galveston, Houston, and much of the Pineywoods experienced the wrath of Rita's winds and flooding rains. However, the 15+ feet storm surge was mainly felt by southwestern Louisiana.

That would change with Hurricane Ike.

Ike was a large storm with a 12 to 20-foot storm surge that caught many off guard (including meteorologists). Waves topped the Galveston seawall and many homes on Crystal Beach and the Bolivar Peninsula were swept away. The exact number of missing persons is still debated.

The largest recorded storm surge happened in 2005 when Hurricane Katrina flooded the Louisiana and Mississippi coastline with a 25 to 28-foot surge.

The entire Big Bend coastal region of Florida is under mandatory evacuation orders due to the expected surge potential.

Please keep everyone in the path of Helene in your prayers.